A novel approach to developing and validating a predictive model of functional recovery for adults with stroke in post-acute rehabilitation

This is totally wrong, predicting recovery rather than DELIVERING RECOVERY! I'd fire everybody involved!

 A novel approach to developing and validating a
predictive model of functional recovery for adults with
stroke in post-acute rehabilitation

Alison Cogan, Dongze Ye, Dingyi Nie, Mary Lawlor and

Nicolas Schweighofer

University of Southern California

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: 

To use patient-level Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) mandated quality metrics for inpatient rehabilitation facilities (IRFs) to develop and validate predictive

models of functional recovery and interactions of baseline characteristics with therapy time. 

METHODS/STUDY POPULATION:

Retrospective cohort study of a national US sample of ~40,000 adults with a primary diagnosis of stroke admitted to IRFs in 2023. Records will be randomly allocated to equal training and validation samples.

We will use a random forest approach to generate predictive models for self-care and mobility functional outcomes using patient baseline and demographic data from a CMS-mandated assessment for IRFs(Section GG). We will also examine how predictive variables modulate the effects of occupational, physical, and speech-language therapy minutes. The random forest is a machine-learning approach

that trains multiple models and combines their predictions to improve their overall performance. 

RESULTS/ANTICIPATED

RESULTS: 

Predictive models developed from the training sample will be applied to the validation sample to confirm their capacity to support new observations. Preliminary results will be reported,

including the F1 score and area under the curve (AUC), with 95% confidence intervals. A unique feature of this study is the large sample, which contrasts with prior research in stroke rehabilitation using machine learning approaches. This study will produce powerful models that will inform the design of a clinical decision-support tool for application into clinical practice in a future study. 

DISCUSSION/

SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: 

By using CMS-mandated quality metrics that are collected as part of standard clinical practice in IRFs, results will support clinical interpretation and application of

metrics and inform the development of a clinician-facing intervention to support personalized rehabilitation approaches.