Key PointsQuestion
What factors are associated with the acceleration of brain
atrophy and progression to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) based on
long-term longitudinal data for individuals with normal cognition at
baseline?
Findings
In the cohort study, 185 participants with normal cognition
underwent a mean follow-up of 20 years with brain magnetic resonance
imaging scans. Type 2 diabetes and abnormal amyloid-β concentration in
the cerebrospinal fluid were associated with accelerated brain atrophy
and an earlier progression to MCI.
Meaning
These results support the importance of identifying
individuals who have accelerated brain atrophy to optimize strategies to
prevent MCI.
Importance
It remains unclear which risk factors accelerate brain atrophy
along with a progression from normal cognition to mild cognitive
impairment (MCI).
Objective
To examine risk factors associated with the acceleration of
brain atrophy and progression from normal cognition to MCI based on
long-term longitudinal data for middle-aged and older adults.
Design, Setting, and Participants
Data for this cohort study were extracted from the Biomarkers
for Older Controls at Risk for Dementia (BIOCARD) cohort, initiated at
the National Institutes of Health from January 1, 1995, to December 31,
2005, and continued at Johns Hopkins University from January 1, 2015, to
October 31, 2023. All participants were cognitively normal at baseline.
The participants whose structural magnetic brain imaging (MRI) of the
brain and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) measures were available for over 10
years were included.
Exposures
Longitudinal structural MRI of the brain and measurement of
CSF biomarkers for Alzheimer disease pathology (ratio of amyloid β
peptide 42 [Aβ42] to Aβ40, tau phosphorylated at threonine 181, and total tau).
Main Outcomes and Measures
Annual change rates of segmental brain volumes, Kaplan-Meier
survival curves plotting time to event for progression to MCI symptom
onset, and hazard ratios (HRs) determined by Cox proportional hazards
regression models.
Results
A total of 185 participants (mean [SD] age, 55.4 [8.4] years;
116 women [63%]) were included and followed up for a maximum of 27 years
(median, 20 [IQR, 18-22] years). The groups with high levels of atrophy
in the white matter and enlargement in the ventricles had an earlier
progression from normal cognition to MCI symptom onset (HR for white
matter, 1.86 [95% CI, 1.24-2.49]; P = .001; HR for ventricles, 1.71 [95% CI, 1.19-2.24]; P = .009). Diabetes was associated with progression to MCI (HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.06-1.76]; P = .04), as was a low CSF Aβ42:Aβ40 ratio (HR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.09-1.88]; P = .04), and their combination had a higher HR of 1.55 (95% CI, 1.13-1.98]; P = .03), indicating a synergic association of diabetes and amyloid pathology with MCI progression.
Conclusions and Relevance
In this cohort study of middle-aged and older adults, higher
rates of volume change in the white matter and ventricles, along with
the presence of diabetes and a low CSF Aβ42:Aβ40
ratio, were identified as important risk factors for the progression to
MCI. These results support the importance of identifying individuals who
have accelerated brain atrophy to optimize preventive strategies for
progression to MCI.
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