For all the brainpower behind this study I would say they missed the boat.
The two points I would have used would be infarct volume and infarct location,with a breakdown between penumbra and dead brain. The 30 day criteria is cherry-picking the best patients and those with the least amount of dead brain. Followup should really occur each month for 5 years, that would allow for determining what is the criteria for dead brain function recovery. I can't see the conclusion coming from what they report.
http://stroke.ahajournals.org/cgi/content/short/STROKEAHA.110.596312v1
A 5-Item Scale to Predict Stroke Outcome After Cortical Middle Cerebral Artery Territory Infarction
Validation From Results of the Diffusion and Perfusion Imaging Evaluation for Understanding Stroke Evolution (DEFUSE) Study
Nirav A. Vora, MD; Steven J. Shook, MD; H. Christian Schumacher, MD; Andrew L. Tievsky, MD; Greg W. Albers, MD; Lawrence R. Wechsler, MD; Rishi Gupta, MD
From the Department of Neurology (N.A.V.), Souers Stroke Institute, St. Louis University, St. Louis, MO; Neuroscience Institute (S.J.S., A.L.T.), Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH; the Department of Neurology (H.C.S.), Columbia Presbyterian Medical Center, New York, NY; the Department of Neurology (G.W.A.), Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, CA; the Department of Neurology (L.R.W.), University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Pittsburgh, PA; and the Departments of Neurology, Neurosurgery and Radiology (R.G.), Emory University School of Medicine, Marcus Neuroscience and Stroke Center, Grady Memorial Hospital, Atlanta, GA.
Correspondence to Rishi Gupta, MD, Emory University School of Medicine, Marcus Stroke and Neuroscience Center, 49 Jesse Hill Jr. Drive, SE, Faculty Office Building #393, Atlanta, GA 30303. E-mail rishi.gupta@emory.edu
Abstract
Background and Purpose—Various clinical, laboratory, and radiographic parameters have been identified as predictors of outcome for ischemic stroke. The purpose of this study was to combine these parameters into a validated scale for outcome prognostication in patients with a middle cerebral artery territory infarction.
Methods—We retrospectively reviewed 129 patients over a 2-year period and considered demographic, clinical, laboratory, and radiographic parameters as potential predictors of outcome. Inclusion criteria were unilateral hemispheric infarcts within the middle cerebral artery territory >15 mm in diameter. Our primary outcome measure was a favorable recovery defined as a modified Rankin Score was 2 at 30 days. A multivariable model was used to determine independent predictors of outcome and weighted to create a 5-item scale to predict stroke recovery. External validation of this model was done using data from the Diffusion and Perfusion Imaging Evaluation for Understanding Stroke Evolution (DEFUSE) study.
Results—The 5 independent predictors of outcome were as follows: age (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.14; P=0.001), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.30; P=0.003), infarct volume (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.02; P=0.03), admission white blood cell count (8.5x103/mm3; OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.27; P=0.04), and presence of hyperglycemia (OR, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.1 to 16.4; P=0.04). Combining these variables into a point scale significantly improved prediction over the individual variables accounted alone as evidenced by the area underneath the receiver operating curve (OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.96; P=0.0001). When applied to the DEFUSE study population for validation, the model achieved a sensitivity of 83% and specificity of 86%.
Conclusions—With validation from a prospective study of similar patients, this model serves as a useful clinical and research tool to predict stroke recovery after cortical middle cerebral artery territory infarction.
I wonder how this compares to the Canadian one:
http://oc1dean.blogspot.com/2011/02/ischemic-stroke-risk-predictor.html
I had a massive MCA infarct and would be curious what the scale would have predicted for my 30-day recovery.
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