http://www.qstroke.org/index.php
Putting in the factors at time of your stroke. Mine was .8% in the next 10 years.I bet it calculates just as bad for most of you, especially you youngsters.
That way all us survivors could check it out and see if it could have predicted our strokes.
Ask your doctor for your next stroke prediction with your risk reductions as listed here.
http://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f2573
Abstract
Objective
To develop and validate a risk algorithm (QStroke) to estimate risk of
stroke or transient ischaemic attack in patients without prior stroke or
transient ischaemic attack at baseline; to compare (a) QStroke with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2VASc scores in patients with atrial fibrillation and (b)
the performance of QStroke with the Framingham stroke score in the full
population free of stroke or transient ischaemic attack.
Design
Prospective open cohort study using routinely collected data from
general practice during the study period 1 January 1998 to 1 August
2012.
Setting 451 general practices in
England and Wales contributing to the national QResearch database to
develop the algorithm and 225 different QResearch practices to validate
the algorithm.
Participants 3.5 million
patients aged 25-84 years with 24.8 million person years in the
derivation cohort who experienced 77 578 stroke events. For the
validation cohort, we identified 1.9 million patients aged 25-84 years
with 12.7 million person years who experienced 38 404 stroke events. We
excluded patients with a prior diagnosis of stroke or transient
ischaemic attack and those prescribed oral anticoagulants at study
entry.
Main outcome measures Incident
diagnosis of stroke or transient ischaemic attack recorded in general
practice records or linked death certificates during follow-up.
Risk factors
Self assigned ethnicity, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood
pressure, ratio of total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein
cholesterol concentrations, body mass index, family history of coronary
heart disease in first degree relative under 60 years, Townsend
deprivation score, treated hypertension, type 1 diabetes, type 2
diabetes, renal disease, rheumatoid arthritis, coronary heart disease,
congestive cardiac failure, valvular heart disease, and atrial
fibrillation
Results The QStroke
algorithm explained 57% of the variation in women and 55% in men without
a prior stroke. The D statistic for QStroke was 2.4 in women and 2.3 in
men. QStroke had improved performance on all measures of discrimination
and calibration compared with the Framingham score in patients without a
prior stroke. Among patients with atrial fibrillation, levels of
discrimination were lower, but QStroke had some improved performance on
all measures of discrimination compared with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2VASc.
Conclusion
QStroke provides a valid measure of absolute stroke risk in the general
population of patients free of stroke or transient ischaemic attack as
shown by its performance in a separate validation cohort. QStroke also
shows some improvement on current risk scoring methods, CHADS2 and CHA2DS2VASc,
for the subset of patients with atrial fibrillation for whom
anticoagulation may be required. Further research is needed to evaluate
the cost effectiveness of using these algorithms in primary care.
My risk was 0.3% when I was 30 years old and had 3 strokes.
ReplyDelete