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http://www.sci-news.com/medicine/coffee-reduce-risk-heart-failure-stroke-05430.html
Increased coffee consumption may be associated with a reduced risk of developing heart failure or having stroke, according to new research from the University of Colorado.
Heart failure and stroke are complex diseases with multiple phenotypes. While many risk factors for these diseases are well known, it is likely that there are as-yet unidentified risk factors given the complex pathophysiology of each disease.
To identify potential diet factors associated with heart failure and stroke, Laura Stevens, a doctoral student at the University of Colorado School of Medicine, and colleagues used machine learning to analyze data from the long-running Framingham Heart Study, which includes information about what people eat and their cardiovascular health.
The researchers found that drinking coffee was associated with decreased risk of developing heart failure by 7% and stroke by 8% with every additional cup of coffee consumed per week compared with non-coffee drinkers.
“It is important to note that this type of study design demonstrates an observed association, but does not prove cause and effect,” the authors explained.
“Machine learning works by finding associations within data, much in the same way that online shopping sites predict products you may like based on your shopping history, and is one type of big data analysis.”
To ensure the validity of their results and determine direction of risk, Stevens and co-authors further investigated the machine learning results using traditional analysis in two studies with similar sets of data — the Cardiovascular Heart Study and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.
The association between drinking coffee and a reduced risk of heart failure and stroke was consistently noted in all three studies.
“Our findings suggest that machine learning could help us identify additional factors to improve existing risk assessment models,” Stevens said.
“The risk assessment tools we currently use for predicting whether someone might develop heart disease, particularly heart failure or stroke, are very good but they are not 100% accurate.”
The scientists presented their results Monday at the American Heart Association’s Scientific Sessions 2017 and in the journal Circulation.
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Laura Stevens et al. 2017. Coffee Intake Affects Heart Failure and Stroke Survival and is Significant in Predicting Heart Failure and Stroke Risk. Circulation 136: A21081
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