Ebbesen
MQB, Dreier JW, Andersen G, Johnsen SP, Christensen J. Stroke and Risk
of Epilepsy: A Danish Nationwide Register-Based Study. Stroke. 2024.
Stroke is a major cause of new-onset epilepsy in adults,1 especially in people aged 60 years and older.2
Published estimates of poststroke epilepsy risk, however, are
heterogeneous, likely reflecting variable stroke and epilepsy
classification accuracies in population-based cohorts, variable
follow-up duration and attrition rates, and different statistical
methods used to derive risk estimates. For example, crude incidences
obtained from Kaplan-Meier estimates of the survival function tend to
inflate risks in the presence of competing events such as death.3
This study, therefore, aimed to determine the short- and long-term risk
of poststroke epilepsy while accounting for death as a competing risk.
The authors defined a population-based cohort from Danish nationwide
registries. Strokes occurring between 2004-2018 were identified from the
Danish Stroke Registry, which captures all acute strokes treated in
hospital departments, whereas strokes occurring before 2004 and epilepsy
cases were identified from the Danish National Patient Register, which
contains International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes from
inpatient hospital discharge diagnoses (since 1977) and diagnoses from
outpatient and emergency department visits (since 1995). The stroke
group was defined from individuals who experienced a first-ever stroke
between April 2004 and December 2018, without prior epilepsy.
Individuals in the stroke group were matched with up to 10 reference
people without prior epilepsy or stroke (i.e., the control group) on
age, sex, and calendar time. Poststroke epilepsy was defined from ICD
codes for epilepsy recorded at least 14 days after stroke to distinguish
it from early seizures. The authors included 101,034 people in the
stroke group and 1,010,333 people in the control group.
At two years, the cumulative incidence of epilepsy reached 3.5% (95%
confidence interval [CI]: 3.4, 3.7%) in the stroke group vs 0.2% (95%
CI: 0.1, 0.2%) in the control group, which at 10 years increased to 5.8%
(95% CI: 5.6, 5.9%) in the stroke group vs 0.7% (95% CI: 0.7, 0.7%) in
the control group. Poststroke epilepsy risk was higher in people with
intracerebral haemorrhage as compared to those with ischemic stroke
(12.5% [95% CI: 11.7, 13.2%] vs 5.1% [95% CI: 4.9, 5.3%] at 10 years).
Poststroke epilepsy risk also increased with higher stroke severity and
cortical involvement. Seizures within 14 days of stroke occurred in 0.6%
of people with ischemic stroke and 2.2% of people with intracerebral
haemorrhage, and early seizures increased the risk of poststroke
epilepsy. As expected, risk estimates were higher when derived from the
Kaplan-Meier estimates as compared to cumulative incidence functions
that accounted for competing death risk.
This study is interesting and relevant to clinicians and researchers
in stroke medicine for two main reasons. First, the authors report
results which elegantly replicate prior studies that suggested not all
strokes are equal when it comes to seizure risk. The first externally
validated prognostic model of late (>7 days) seizures after ischemic
stroke (the SeLECT score) was published in 20184 and included
five clinical predictors: stroke severity, cortical involvement, early
seizures, large artery atherosclerotic aetiology, and territory of
middle cerebral artery involvement. In this study, the overall 5-year
risk of late seizure after stroke was 8% (95% CI: 6, 9%), while people
with the highest SeLECT score had a markedly high predicted 5-year risk
of 83% (95% CI: 62, 93%). Both studies confirm that achieving accurate
stratification of poststroke epilepsy risk is feasible.
Second, this study reports precise and reasonably accurate estimates
of poststroke epilepsy risk in the general Danish population using a
large prospective cohort. Producing valid estimates of poststroke
epilepsy risk is a first step towards understanding the natural history
of the disease, which can then be used for clinical decisions (e.g.,
offering closer follow-up), public health advocacy (e.g., campaigning
for better resources to support people with poststroke epilepsy),
research advocacy (e.g., influencing resources invested in poststroke
epilepsy research), and future research questions (e.g., sample size
calculation for clinical trials of interventions to prevent poststroke
epilepsy). These estimates, however, may not be generalizable and need
replication in other populations which might be subject to differences
in factors known to influence poststroke epilepsy risk, like access to
acute stroke care and stroke etiology.
Beyond stratifying and estimating risk, the optimal clinical
management of people with higher poststroke epilepsy risk remains
unclear. How can poststroke epilepsy risk stratification be designed and
implemented? What could be the effect on routine care and
patient-reported outcomes? Should stroke survivors undergo routine
assessments (e.g., electroencephalogram) or monitoring (e.g.,
actigraphy)? Can patients with higher risk be included in trials of
interventions to prevent epilepsy onset (e.g., the registered trial
Exploring the Preventive Effect of Mitochondrial Protective Agent on Post-stroke Epilepsy; clinicaltrials.gov ID: NCT05987397)?
These are only a few of the persisting knowledge gaps that still need to
be addressed in poststroke epilepsy research.