A Delayed Modified ICH Score Outperforms Baseline Scoring in Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage

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A Delayed Modified ICH Score Outperforms Baseline Scoring in Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage

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Ronda Lun, MD, Vignan Yogendrakumar, MD, MSc, Dylan Blacquiere, MD, ...

First Published December 30, 2019 Case Report

https://doi.org/10.1177/1941874419896715

Article information

Abstract

The Modified Intracerebral Hemorrhage (MICH) score is a simple tool created to provide prognostication in basal ganglia hemorrhages. Current prognostic scores, including the MICH, are based on the assessment of baseline patient characteristics, failing to account for significant developments, such as intraventricular extension and clinical deterioration, which may occur over the first 72 hours. We propose to validate the MICH in all hemorrhage locations and hypothesize that its calculation at 72 hours will outperform its baseline counterpart with respect to predicting mortality and functional outcome. We performed a retrospective analysis of collated data from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive database. Primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Secondary outcome was poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale 4-6) at 90 days. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated looking at the predictive ability of the MICH score for mortality and poor outcome, at baseline and at 72 hours. Competing curves were assessed with nonparametric methods. A total of 226 patients were included, with a 90-day mortality of 22.5%. The MICH scores calculated at 72 hours were more predictive of mortality than at baseline (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.89 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83-0.94] vs 0.78 [95% CI: 0.70-0.85]), P <.01. The MICH scores at 72 hours similarly better predicted functional outcome (AUC: 0.78 [95% CI: 0.72-0.84] vs AUC: 0.72 [95% CI: 0.66-0.78]), P = .047. The MICH score has positive prognostic value for mortality and poor functional outcome in all hemorrhage locations. Delaying its calculation resulted in higher predictive values for both and suggests that delaying discussions around withdrawal of care may result in more accurate prognostication in acute intracerebral hemorrhage.