Blood test predicts stroke 15 years before onset

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Blood test predicts stroke 15 years before onset

A blood test could predict stroke and other cardiovascular diseases up to 15 years before symptoms appear, researchers say.

The tool, called CardiOmicScore, uses a single blood sample to generate personalised risk scores for six major cardiovascular conditions: coronary artery disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, peripheral artery disease and venous thromboembolism.

The system was developed by a team at the University of Hong Kong’s LKS Faculty of Medicine using deep learning, a type of artificial intelligence that spots patterns in large amounts of data.

The study used large-scale population data from the UK Biobank, combining multiomics data, including genomics, metabolomics and proteomics, and analysing 2,920 circulating proteins and 168 metabolites from blood samples.

Unlike polygenic risk scores, which estimate inherited risk based on a person’s genes and are largely fixed at birth, the tool is designed to reflect a person’s current biological state and how it may be changing over time.

Professor Zhang Qingpeng, associate professor in the department of pharmacology and pharmacy at the university, said: “Genes determine where we start.

“They define our baseline health risk. However, proteins and metabolites reflect our current physical health.

“Our AI tool is designed to decode these complex molecular signals, enabling doctors and patients to identify risks much earlier, which can potentially change the trajectory of disease through timely lifestyle modifications and early prevention.”

The researchers said CardiOmicScore transformed complex multiomics measurements into personalised risk scores with substantially improved predictive performance compared with conventional polygenic risk scores.

When combined with clinical information such as age and gender, it significantly improved risk prediction accuracy and could flag elevated risk up to 15 years before symptoms appear.

Zhang added: “We aim to leverage technology to identify and prevent diseases before they develop.

“By shifting health management from reactive treatment to proactive prediction and intervention, we aim to create a lasting impact for both public health and individual patient care.”

Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of death worldwide, accounting for about 19.8 million deaths in 2022.

Doctors usually assess risk using factors such as age, blood pressure and smoking, but those measures can miss subtle biological changes before disease becomes clinically apparent.