Changing stroke rehab and research worldwide now.Time is Brain! trillions and trillions of neurons that DIE each day because there are NO effective hyperacute therapies besides tPA(only 12% effective). I have 523 posts on hyperacute therapy, enough for researchers to spend decades proving them out. These are my personal ideas and blog on stroke rehabilitation and stroke research. Do not attempt any of these without checking with your medical provider. Unless you join me in agitating, when you need these therapies they won't be there.

What this blog is for:

My blog is not to help survivors recover, it is to have the 10 million yearly stroke survivors light fires underneath their doctors, stroke hospitals and stroke researchers to get stroke solved. 100% recovery. The stroke medical world is completely failing at that goal, they don't even have it as a goal. Shortly after getting out of the hospital and getting NO information on the process or protocols of stroke rehabilitation and recovery I started searching on the internet and found that no other survivor received useful information. This is an attempt to cover all stroke rehabilitation information that should be readily available to survivors so they can talk with informed knowledge to their medical staff. It lays out what needs to be done to get stroke survivors closer to 100% recovery. It's quite disgusting that this information is not available from every stroke association and doctors group.

Showing posts with label DALY. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DALY. Show all posts

Monday, July 22, 2024

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

 Yet, with all the problems stroke causes, NO ONE IN THE WORLD IS WORKING ON 100% RECOVERY! It's absolutely insane how fucking stupid the stroke medical world is! With stroke by far having the highest DALYs on would think someone would be working on 100% recovery, but NO, there seems to be no functioning brain cells in the stroke world.


Send me hate mail on this: oc1dean@gmail.com. I'll print your complete statement with your name and my response in my blog. Or are you afraid to engage with my stroke-addled mind? I need an explanation of your incompetence on stroke research and why you're not solving stroke.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

GBD 2021 Nervous System Disorders Collaborators
†Show footnotes
Open AccessPublished:March 14, 2024DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S1474-4422(24)00038-3

Summary

Background

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

Methods

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

Findings

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

Interpretation

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Introduction

Conditions can affect the nervous system throughout life, for example by disrupting brain growth; damaging the brain, spinal cord, or peripheral nerves; and impairing cognitive, sensory, socioemotional, and motor function and behaviour. This diverse group of conditions includes congenital and neurodevelopmental disorders, cerebrovascular and neurodegenerative diseases, neurological infections, neurological–immunological disorders, neuromuscular or peripheral nervous system disorders, traumatic injuries, and cancers of the nervous system, for brevity summarised as neurological disorders or nervous system conditions. These disorders vary in cause, symptoms, and course. Some nervous system conditions cause lifelong disability, whereas others are associated with high fatality rates; some are treatable or preventable, whereas for others there is no cure.

 

Saturday, March 2, 2024

MPETUS Stroke: Assessment of hospital infrastructure and workflow for implementation of uniform stroke care pathway in India

I guess India still has no fucking clue that survivors  want recovery NOT 'CARE'!

MPETUS Stroke: Assessment of hospital infrastructure and workflow for implementation of uniform stroke care pathway in India

Abstract

Background:

India accounts for 13.3% of global disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to stroke with a relatively younger age of onset compared to the Western population. In India’s public healthcare system, many stroke patients seek care at tertiary-level government-funded medical colleges where an optimal level of stroke care is expected. However, there are no studies from India that have assessed the quality of stroke care, including infrastructure, imaging facilities, or the availability of stroke care units in medical colleges.

Aim:

This study aimed to understand the existing protocols and management of acute stroke care across 22 medical colleges in India, as part of the baseline assessment of the ongoing IMPETUS stroke study.

Methods:

A semi-structured quantitative pre-tested questionnaire, developed based on review of literature and expert discussion, was mailed to 22 participating sites of the IMPETUS stroke study. The questionnaire assessed comprehensively all components of stroke care, including human resources, emergency system, in-hospital care, and secondary prevention. A descriptive analysis of their status was undertaken.

Results:

In the emergency services, limited stroke helpline numbers, 3/22 (14%); prenotification system, 5/22 (23%); and stroke-trained physicians were available, 6/22 (27%). One-third of hospitals did not have on-call neurologists. Although non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) was always available, 39% of hospitals were not doing computed tomography (CT) angiography and 13/22 (59%) were not doing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) after routine working hours. Intravenous thrombolysis was being done in 20/22 (91%) hospitals, but 36% of hospitals did not provide it free of cost. Endovascular therapy was available only in 6/22 (27%) hospitals. The study highlighted the scarcity of multidisciplinary stroke teams, 8/22 (36%), and stroke units, 7/22 (32%). Lifesaving surgeries like hematoma evacuation, 11/22 (50%), and decompressive craniectomy, 9/22 (41%), were performed in limited numbers. The availability of occupational therapists, speech therapists, and cognitive rehabilitation was minimal.

Conclusion:

This study highlighted the current status of acute stroke management in publicly funded tertiary care hospitals. Lack of prenotification, limited number of stroke-trained physicians and neurosurgeons, relatively lesser provision of free thrombolytic agents, limited stroke units, and lack of rehabilitation services are areas needing urgent attention by policymakers and creation of sustainable education models for uniform stroke care by medical professionals across the country.

Get full access to this article

Sunday, September 5, 2021

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

 And just what the fuck is stroke leadership doing to solve this problem? I'm sure ABSOLUTELY NOTHING but clutching their pearls and exclaiming how bad stroke is! Doing nothing is the stock in trade in stroke. Who the fuck cares about survivors not recovering?

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Summary

Background

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

Methods

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

Findings

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]).

Interpretation

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.(So doing nothing once you have the stroke. Good to know you don't give a shit about survivors.)

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Introduction

Disease and population distribution patterns, life expectancy, mortality, causes of death, and socio-demographic factors continue to change across the world, including ageing of populations and changes in the prevalence of risk factors for non-communicable disorders. Timely estimates of the burden of stroke and its pathological types, the burden attributable to risk factors, and trends in the burden over time are necessary at the global, regional, and national levels to guide evidence-based health-care policy, planning, and resource allocation for stroke.
 
 More blathering at the link.

Tuesday, August 31, 2021

Acute intracerebral haemorrhage: diagnosis and management

Since your doctor and hospital don't know what to do when this occurs they should immediately get research going to solve that problem. YOUR RESPONSIBILITY  is to ensure your hospital initiates that research. Or don't you want your children and grandchildren to have better care?

Acute intracerebral haemorrhage: diagnosis and management

  1. Iain J McGurgan1,
  2. Wendy C Ziai2,
  3. David J Werring3,
  4. Rustam Al-Shahi Salman4,
  5. Adrian R Parry-Jones5
  1. Correspondence to Adrian R Parry-Jones, Clinical Sciences Building, Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust, Stott Lane, Salford M6 8HD, UK; adrian.parry-jones@manchester.ac.uk

Abstract

Intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) accounts for half of the disability-adjusted life years lost due to stroke worldwide. Care pathways for acute stroke result in the rapid identification of ICH, but its acute management can prove challenging because no individual treatment has been shown definitively to improve its outcome.(So no protocols for anything here. Good to know you might want to try to have a more treatable stroke to match your doctor's skills.) Nonetheless, acute stroke unit care improves outcome after ICH, patients benefit from interventions to prevent complications, acute blood pressure lowering appears safe and might have a modest benefit, and implementing a bundle of high-quality acute care is associated with a greater chance of survival. In this article, we address the important questions that neurologists face in the diagnosis and acute management of ICH, and focus on the supporting evidence and practical delivery for the main acute interventions.

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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INTRODUCTION

Spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) refers to non-traumatic bleeding in the brain parenchyma and is the deadliest form of stroke. The high 1-month case-fatality rate of ~40% and poor long-term outcome make it a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality.1 2 Although ICH accounts for a minority of stroke worldwide (10–30%), it is associated with a greater burden of disability-adjusted life years than ischaemic stroke, given its high incidence in low- and middle-income countries.3 Despite dramatic drops in ischaemic stroke mortality rates,3 there has been limited improvement in case fatality from ICH in the last few decades2 4 5 and most survivors are left with severe disability.2 6 7

ICH is not a single entity; 85% of cases are due to cerebral small vessel disease, predominantly deep perforator arteriopathy (also termed hypertensive arteriopathy or arteriosclerosis) and cerebral amyloid angiopathy, while the remainder results from a macrovascular (eg, arteriovenous malformation, cavernoma, aneurysm and venous thrombosis) or neoplastic cause. Vascular malformations are the most common cause of ICH in young adults, accounting for up to one-third of cases.8 The term ‘primary’ ICH is often applied to cases caused by cerebral small vessel disease, but it discourages adequate investigation and accurate classification and is not recommended. Deep haemorrhages account for about two-thirds of cases, occur in the internal capsule, basal ganglia or brainstem, and more likely result from deep perforator arteriopathy. About 5–10% of ICH occurs in the cerebellum. The remainder is lobar haemorrhage located in cortico-subcortical areas, often near or reaching the cerebral convexities, of which ~40% are due to arteriosclerosis alone, ~40% to arteriosclerosis and amyloid angiopathy and the remaining ~20% to amyloid angiopathy alone.9

There are no medical treatments for acute ICH that have been definitively proven in primary outcome analyses of randomised clinical trials. Patients with ICH are frequently referred for surgery, but the roles of various surgical methods and timing of surgery remain controversial. In this article, we outline a practical approach to the diagnosis and management of acute ICH.

 

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Abstract 17: Time-Benefit Association is Magnified in Door-To-Puncture Window: Lose 1 Second, Lose 2.2 Hours of Healthy Life

So you can quantify the bill you can provide your stroke hospital for not doing the absolute fastest  puncture time. Door-to-needle is totally the wrong measurement. It should be how many minutes prior to door arrival. I had it in 90 minutes, so I lost 11,880 hours/495 days/1.34 years.   Just maybe your stroke hospital/ambulance should be doing these much faster methods.

I was hoping one of these pieces of research would give me a value but they don't:

The value of DALY life: problems with ethics and validity of disability adjusted life years


Understanding and improving the one and three times GDP per capita cost-effectiveness thresholds


Economic Burden of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of Injuries 


Using Disability Adjusted Life Years to Value the Treatment of Thirty Chronic Conditions in the U.S. from 1987-2010


DALY to money conversion

 I still like the very simple calculation of $1000 per dead neuron. At 177 million dead neurons in the first 90 minutes  that would cost my stroke hospital 177 billion dollars. I'm excluding the additional 5.4 billion neurons they let die during the

neuronal cascade of death  in the first week. 

 

Time is Brain, you know. Maybe you want these much faster objective diagnosis options.

Hats off to Helmet of Hope - stroke diagnosis in 30 seconds; February 2017

 

Microwave Imaging for Brain Stroke Detection and Monitoring using High Performance Computing in 94 seconds March 2017

 

New Device Quickly Assesses Brain Bleeding in Head Injuries - 5-10 minutes April 2017

Ski-Mask Design AIR Coil Offers Whole-Brain Imaging Without Claustrophobia


Blood Biomarkers to Differentiate Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Strokes Might Allow Prehospital Thrombolysis


 The latest here:

Abstract 17: Time-Benefit Association is Magnified in Door-To-Puncture Window: Lose 1 Second, Lose 2.2 Hours of Healthy Life

 
Originally publishedhttps://doi.org/10.1161/str.52.suppl_1.17Stroke. 2021;52:A17

Background: The benefits of endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) are time dependent. Prior studies may have underestimated the magnitude of the time-benefit relation because time of onset (last known well ”LKW”) is imprecisely known, and analyses including late-arriving patients have under-representation of “fast-progressors.”

Methods: Patient level data were pooled by the HERMES Investigators from all 7 RCTs of stent retriever thrombectomy devices (entirely or predominantly) versus medical therapy. Analysis was confined to early-treated patients (LKW-to-puncture≤4h). Exposures: last known well-to-door (LKWTD) time; door-to-puncture (DTP) time; door-to-reperfusion (DTR) time. Outcomes: stroke-related quality of life at 3m (utility-weighted modified Rankin Scale); years of healthy life lost [disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)].

Results: Among the 781 EVT-treated patients, 406 (52.0%) were treated within 4h of LKW, with LKW-to-Door time median 188 minutes (IQR 151-215) and DTP time 105 minutes (IQR 76-135). Among the 295/372 (79.3%) with substantial reperfusion, DTR time was median 145 minutes (IQR 111-186). Care process delays were more strongly associated with worse clinical outcomes in the DTP and DTR epochs than the LKW-To-Door epoch (Table 1A), e.g., for each 10 minute delay, healthy life-years lost were: DTP 1.8 months vs LKW-to-Door 0.0 months, p < 0.0001. Considering granular time increments, the amount of healthy life-years lost associated with each 1 second of delay was: DTP 2.2 hours, DTR 2.1 hours.(Table 1B)

Conclusion: Post-arrival care delays are strongly associated with worse EVT patient outcomes in the early post-arrival time period. With every 1 second of delay in EVT delivery, patients lose 2.2 hours of healthy life-years. Continuous quality improvement to minimize delays in DTP and DTR for endovascular thrombectomy is warranted.

Friday, November 6, 2020

Global Burden of Disease study examines prevalence of neurological disorders in US

Notice that stroke has the highest  DALYs(Disability Adjusted Life Years). And there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING for curing or rehabbing stroke! I consider tPA having only a 12% full recovery rate a complete failure, there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING that will get you recovered after the clot is removed.

Global Burden of Disease study examines prevalence of neurological disorders in US

 

Noncommunicable neurological disorders resulted in “a large and increasing burden” in the United States, according to a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study from 2017 that was published in JAMA Neurology.

The three most burdensome neurological disorders in the United States, in terms of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), during this period included stroke, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias, and migraine.

“Previous Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors (GBD) Study articles have reported burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors among U.S. states and global, regional and country-specific estimates of the burden from neurological disorders, but no estimates for a comprehensive list of neurological disorders have been reported for the U.S. states from this study,” the researchers wrote. “This study provides estimates for noncommunicable and communicable neurological disorders at the state level from 1990 to 2017.”

Valery L. Feigin, MD, MSc, PhD, FAAN, director of and professor at the National Institute for Stroke and Applied Neurosciences at the University of Auckland and affiliate professor of global health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, and fellow GBD 2017 U.S. Neurological Disorders collaborators collected data on the incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALYs for major neurological disorders from the GBD 2017 U.S. study. The researchers examined 14 major neurological disorders, including stroke, AD and other dementias, Parkinson’s disease, epilepsy, MS, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injuries, brain and other nervous system cancers, meningitis, encephalitis and tetanus.

Researchers found that the burden of almost all neurological disorders, in regard to absolute number of incident, prevalent and fatal cases as well as DALYs, increased between 1990 and 2017, due in large part to the aging population. The five most prevalent disorders included tension-type headache (121.6 million people), migraine (68.5 million people), stroke (7.8 million people), AD and other dementias (2.9 million people), and spinal cord injuries (2.2 million people). The most burdensome in regard to DALYs included stroke (3.6 million DALYs), AD and other dementias (2.6 million DALYs), migraine (2.4 million DALYs), idiopathic epilepsy (0.4 million people) and Parkinson’s disease (0.4 million people).

The five leading causes of death from neurological disorders were from AD and other dementias (258,600 deaths), stroke (172,000 deaths), Parkinson’s disease (30,000 deaths), motor neuron disease (8,400 deaths) and MS (4,000 deaths). The highest incidence was of new-onset tension-type headache (44.5 million cases per year), followed by migraine (5 million cases per year), traumatic brain injury (0.96 million cases per year), stroke (0.60 million cases per year) and AD and other dementias (0.48 million cases per year).

Exceptions to these trends of increasing incidence included the rate of traumatic brain injury (29.1%), the rate of spinal cord injury (38.5%); meningitis prevalence (44.8%), deaths (64.4%) and DALYs (66.9%), and encephalitis DALYs (25.8%).

Feigin and colleagues also observed differences in the metrics for age-standardized rates of disease between states, from a 1.2-fold difference for tension-type headache to a 7.5-fold difference for tetanus. Southeastern states and Arkansas recorded a comparatively greater stroke burden, while northern states recorded a relatively higher burden of MS. Eastern states reported higher rates of Parkinson’s disease, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine and tension-type headache, as well as meningitis, encephalitis and tetanus.

“Falling rates of stroke, AD and other dementias, [traumatic brain injury], [spinal cord injury], meningitis and encephalitis might suggest that primary prevention of these disorders are beginning to show an influence, while between-state variations may be associated with differences in the case ascertainment, as well as access to health care; racial/ethnic, genetic and socioeconomic diversity; quality and comprehensiveness of preventive strategies; and risk factor distribution,” the researchers wrote. “For dementia, improving educational levels of cohort reaching the age groups at greatest risk of disease may also be contributing to a modest decline over time.”

The most burdensome disorders as measured by DALYs — stroke, AD and other dementias and migraine — matched findings from other high-income countries in 2016. The correlation between older age and certain disorders found to be prevalent in the U.S., including AD, stroke, Parkinson’s disease and motor neuron disease, “can be explained by the longer life expectancy in the U.S. compared with the world overall,” Feigin and colleagues wrote, and by better case ascertainment in the U.S., such as improved diagnosis, surveillance or reporting and health care access.

“The information reported in this article can be used by health care professionals and policy makers at the national and state levels to advance their health care planning and resource allocation to prevent and reduce the burden of neurological disorders,” Feigin and colleagues wrote.

Monday, June 15, 2020

Economic evaluation of the Melbourne Mobile Stroke Unit

What is way more fucking important is the results! How may got 100% recovered?  What in the world makes you think that stroke patients care about the cost? The mentors and senior researchers who approved this need to be fired for not including an objective on 100% recovery results. That will tell you if MSUs need to be continued, not cost. Faster treatment and reduced DALYs are NOT GOOD ENOUGH.

Economic evaluation of the Melbourne Mobile Stroke Unit 


First Published June 14, 2020 Research Article




The Melbourne Mobile Stroke Unit (MSU) is the first Australian service to provide prehospital acute stroke treatment, including thrombolysis and facilitated triage for endovascular thrombectomy.

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the MSU during the first full year of operation compared with standard ambulance and hospital stroke care pathways (standard care).

The costs and benefits of the Melbourne MSU were estimated using an economic simulation model. Operational costs and service utilization data were obtained from the MSU financial and patient tracking reports. The health benefits were estimated as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) avoided using local data on reperfusion therapy and estimates from the published literature on their effectiveness. Costs were presented in Australian dollars. The robustness of results was assessed using multivariable (model inputs varied simultaneously: 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations) and various one-way sensitivity analyses.

In 2018, the MSU was dispatched to 1244 patients during 200 days of operation. Overall, 167 patients were diagnosed with acute ischemic stroke, and 58 received thrombolysis, endovascular thrombectomy, or both. We estimated 27.94 DALYs avoided with earlier access to endovascular thrombectomy (95% confidence interval (CI) 15.30 to 35.93) and 16.90 DALYs avoided with improvements in access to thrombolysis (95% CI 9.05 to 24.68). The MSU was estimated to cost an additional $30,982 per DALY avoided (95% CI $21,142 to $47,517) compared to standard care.

There is evidence that the introduction of MSU is cost-effective when compared with standard care due to earlier provision of reperfusion therapies.

For patients with suspected stroke, early assessment and diagnosis are essential to ensure that appropriate interventions are provided in a timely and safe manner. In patients with ischemic stroke, thrombolysis and endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) are recommended within defined time windows,1 and are more effective the earlier they are provided.2,3 In particular, the first 60 minutes after stroke onset (termed “the Golden Hour”) is the target window in which treatment can most effectively modify the disease course and reduce the risk of disability or death.4 However, many patients do not arrive early enough to hospital after stroke to be eligible for treatment. For example, only 37% of patients in Australia with ischemic stroke arrive at hospital within the 4.5 hour time window for thrombolysis.5
The next frontier in stroke care is to bring rapid treatment ???directly to the patient, using mobile stroke units (MSUs) carrying portable computed tomography (CT) scans to enable prehospital imaging(I'm sorry but even this mobile unit is way too fucking slow to really do any good. See all my posts on fast diagnosis.). This allows immediate treatment decisions to be made to reduce time to treatment with thrombolysis. In addition, clinically informed triage can occur with identification of patients with large vessel occlusion, enabling rapid transport to the closest EVT capable hospital. In a standard care pathway, assessment for reperfusion therapy can only be made after arrival at hospital and onward inter-hospital transfer may be needed for specialized treatments including EVT and neurosurgery.
Despite the relative novelty of this model of care and limited uptake around the world to date, the clinical effectiveness of MSUs for improving stroke management has been reported for several countries.6 The economic implications of this type of prehospital model of care remain largely unknown, with evidence of cost-effectiveness available from two evaluations conducted in Germany and one in the United States of America.7–9 However, these studies occurred prior to the development of EVT and there is a need to establish cost-effectiveness in a number of different geographical settings.

To provide an estimate of the cost-effectiveness of the first MSU in Australia in its initial full calendar of year of operation, when compared to standard ambulance and hospital stroke care pathways.

In November 2017, the first Australian MSU with CT angiography capability was launched in Melbourne. Following a brief pilot phase, the MSU followed standard procedures from 1 January 2018. The Melbourne MSU was staffed by two paramedics, a CT radiographer, a stroke neurologist, and a stroke nurse specialist, and was typically dispatched within a 20 km radius of the Royal Melbourne Hospital between 8 a.m. and 6 p.m. on weekdays, excluding public holidays and days when vehicle maintenance was required. As is typical with other MSUs, the Melbourne MSU is dual-dispatched alongside a standard ambulance (selected by availability and proximity to the case from the standard ambulance fleet based in Melbourne) to suspected stroke cases or activated by request from an attending paramedic crew.10
In almost all cases, the standard ambulance is able to arrive on scene before the MSU, allowing for primary assessment of the patient and MSU cancellation as required. Among the cases the MSU attends, only those who receive prehospital stroke treatment are transported to hospital by the MSU. Other patients who are not deemed suitable for immediate treatment are handed back over to the paramedics who first arrived on scene. This allows the MSU to be available for the next dispatch.
The MSU pre-notifies all receiving destination hospitals of assessed cases and may recommend a downgrade of transport urgency to hospital in cases of non-stroke or ineligibility for reperfusion therapies. Data for all MSU dispatched cases were collected prospectively in the Melbourne MSU data registry, including all time metrics relating to dispatch, arrival, and treatment. The Melbourne Mobile Stroke Unit evaluation was approved by Melbourne Health Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC/17/MH/375).
The costs and benefits of the Melbourne MSU were estimated by authors JK and DAC using an economic simulation model. Model inputs were derived from a range of sources described in the following sections and the online supplement. Where required, assumptions for the model were agreed with the program leads/senior operational staff. Costs are presented in Australian dollars (AUD) for 2018 (purchasing power parity conversion to 2018 $US: 1.432694).11 The potential cost-effectiveness of the MSU was determined by comparing the estimated costs and benefits incurred by the 2018 cohort treated in the MSU to a counterfactual (hypothetical) scenario where this cohort would have received standard care. Standard care was defined as the usual management of patients with suspected stroke assessed by standard ambulances with subsequent transport to the nearest ED for hospital management. Within Australia, most EDs will initiate a “code stroke” following triage (if suspected stroke identified/confirmed) whereby the stroke service team is notified to assess and treat a patient, including thrombolysis and EVT.
Research materials related to this manuscript can be accessed with approval from the corresponding author.

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Prevent Stroke to Prevent Dementia?

You're missing the whole fucking point. WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE TO PREVENT VASCULAR DEMENTIA POST STROKE?  This shows extreme laziness and NO STROKE LEADERSHIP.  I would have all these stroke 'experts' fired. Once again describing a problem but offering NO useful solution. 

Prevent Stroke to Prevent Dementia?

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — To reduce the incidence of dementia, societies will need to reduce the incidence of strokes, a multinational panel of experts concluded here at the XXIV World Congress of Neurology.
Because there are modifiable risk factors for stroke, it should be possible to lessen the occurrence and impact of dementia, they say.
Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from stroke begin to increase in midlife for both women and men, followed approximately at ages 65 to 69 years by a rising trend in DALYs from Alzheimer's disease and other dementias for both sexes — but more so for men.
Given increasing populations, "the age-standardized rates of dementia have not changed even though… the absolute numbers of people with dementia has increased quite sharply," said William Carroll, MBBS, MD, president of the World Federation of Neurology (WFN) and consultant neurologist at the University of Western Australia in Perth.
Estimates are that the number of people living with dementias in the Americas in 2050 will increase by 248% (9 million recently to 31 million people), in Africa by 300% (3 million to 12 million), in Europe by 90% (11 million to 21 million), and in Southeast Asia by 226% (22 million to 72 million).
"The problem is about how countries and people and nations are going to manage this increased number of people suffering from dementia," he said, given that the human, financial, and societal burdens of dementia are already very large.
Because stroke is a risk factor for dementia, one logical approach to prevent dementia is to address hypertension, a major cause of stroke, as well as smoking, diabetes, and lifestyle. Climate change and air pollution have also become risk factors.
"If we reduce the rate of stroke, the argument goes, we may be able to reduce the face of dementia; if not stop it then at least reduce the severity of the dementia," Carroll predicted.
The Alzheimer's Disease International 2018 report gives a figure of 50 million people worldwide living with dementia in 2018. A new case occurs every 3 seconds. By 2050 the prevalence is expected to triple to 152 million people – two thirds of whom will live in developing countries.
During the news conference, Najeeb Qadi, MD, of King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, illustrated the link between stroke and dementia. He said the top three types of dementia are Alzheimer's disease (47%), mixed dementia (34%), and vascular dementia (9%).
The prevalence of vascular dementia doubles every 5 to 10 years after age 65, and it surpasses Alzheimer's disease after age 85 years. Qadi said dementia occurs in 20% to 30% of people within about 3 months of a stroke, with an additional 25% developing dementia over the next 3 years.

 

Friday, April 13, 2018

Cardiovascular disease is stealing fewer disability-adjusted life-years nationwide now than in 1990, researchers reported in JAMA Cardiology.

Impossible to tell if this is because stroke was counted in CVD in 1990 and not counted in 2016. But your doctor and hospital should know the answer. The WHO reclassified stroke in 2006, now a neurological disease.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2678113


Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases Collaboration
JAMA Cardiol. Published online April 11, 2018. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2018.0385
Key Points
Question  How does the total burden of cardiovascular diseases vary across US states?
Findings  In this study using the Global Burden of Disease methodology, large disparities in total burden of CVD were found between US states despite marked improvements in CVD burden.
Meaning  These estimates can provide a benchmark for states working to focus on key risk factors, improve health care quality, and lower health care costs.
Abstract
Importance  Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, but regional variation within the United States is large. Comparable and consistent state-level measures of total CVD burden and risk factors have not been produced previously.
Objective  To quantify and describe levels and trends of lost health due to CVD within the United States from 1990 to 2016 as well as risk factors driving these changes.
Design, Setting, and Participants  Using the Global Burden of Disease methodology, cardiovascular disease mortality, nonfatal health outcomes, and associated risk factors were analyzed by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2016 for all residents in the United States using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling. Burden of disease was estimated for 10 groupings of CVD, and comparative risk analysis was performed. Data were analyzed from August 2016 to July 2017.
Exposures  Residing in the United States.
Main Outcomes and Measures  Cardiovascular disease disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).
Results  Between 1990 and 2016, age-standardized CVD DALYs for all states decreased. Several states had large rises in their relative rank ordering for total CVD DALYs among states, including Arkansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Indiana, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa. The rate of decline varied widely across states, and CVD burden increased for a small number of states in the most recent years. Cardiovascular disease DALYs remained twice as large among men compared with women. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD DALYs in all states, but the second most common varied by state. Trends were driven by 12 groups of risk factors, with the largest attributable CVD burden due to dietary risk exposures followed by high systolic blood pressure, high body mass index, high total cholesterol level, high fasting plasma glucose level, tobacco smoking, and low levels of physical activity. Increases in risk-deleted CVD DALY rates between 2006 and 2016 in 16 states suggest additional unmeasured risks beyond these traditional factors.
Conclusions and Relevance  Large disparities in total burden of CVD persist between US states despite marked improvements in CVD burden. Differences in CVD burden are largely attributable to modifiable risk exposures.
Introduction
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) was the leading cause of death in the United States in 2016, accounting for more than 900 000 deaths.1 Despite large declines in CVD mortality in the late 20th century attributed to advances in public health and health care, improvements in US life expectancy have slowed for some groups, and CVD mortality is no longer improving.2-5 The strongest signal for this alarming trend in US health is identified subnationally at the state and county level, where levels of risk exposure and health vary widely.6-8
Geographic variation in CVD has many determinants, but these are not usually evaluated in a consistent and comparable manner across all states. Rapid changes in average risk at the national level, such as large declines in plasma cholesterol levels over a relatively short period due to increased use of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors, suggest that subnational evaluation of cardiovascular risk is needed to understand persistent health disparities.9,10 Geographic variation in the quality of primary, prehospital, acute, and long-term cardiovascular care also requires a comprehensive, subnational assessment.11-13
The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 20161 was a study of global health across 332 causes of disease and injury and 84 risk factors in 195 countries and territories. In this article, we report the study’s US state-level results for CVD and its modifiable risk factors.
Methods
Overview
The methods of the GBD Study 2016 have been reported in detail previously.1,14-16 The study used data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and risk exposure to produce comparable estimates of disease burden. All analyses were done separately by sex and aggregated by 5-year age categories. A detailed discussion of data sources and methods are provided in eMethods 1 through 5 in the Supplement, with a brief overview below. This study was reviewed and approved by the University of Washington institutional review board, and informed consent was waived because deidentified data were used.
Causes of CVD
Cardiovascular disease was estimated for the 10 most common global causes of CVD-related death and an additional category that combined all other CVD and circulatory conditions. These causes were ischemic heart disease (IHD), ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic and other stroke, atrial fibrillation, peripheral artery disease, aortic aneurysm, cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, hypertensive heart disease, endocarditis, and rheumatic heart disease. Death due to each underlying CVD cause was defined by categorization of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes.1 Disease incidence and prevalence were defined according to a set of standard case definitions mapped to these codes based on expert guidance.14 These included the third universal definition of myocardial infarction, the World Health Organization definition for stroke, electrocardiographic identification of atrial fibrillation, diagnosis of peripheral arterial disease by ankle-brachial index, the World Heart Federation criteria for definite rheumatic heart disease, and the Framingham Heart Study definition of congestive heart failure. Stroke deaths assigned to a non–subtype-specific code (ICD code I64) were reassigned to subtypes using the proportion of ischemic to hemorrhagic strokes.
Data
Data sources and methods for estimation of CVD have been previously described.17 In brief, population counts were obtained from the US Census Bureau for each state.18 Death certificate data were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics for each state. ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes were aggregated for each cause of CVD. Structured reviews of published literature were performed to identify published and unpublished data on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, and mortality related to CVD causes. State-level inpatient and outpatient claims data were obtained from a database of private and public insurance schemes for 2000, 2010, and 2012.19ICD-9 codes were aggregated for each CVD case definition and used to calculate the annual incidence (using inpatient data) or prevalence rate (using inpatient and outpatient data combined) for selected health conditions, stratified by age, sex, year, and state. A correction factor was applied to account for changes in coding of administrative claims data over time. Data on risk factor exposure were obtained from multiple sources, including the National Health and Nutrition Examination surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance surveys, satellite data and air sampling data for estimation of particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter, and a systematic review of published scientific literature. Surveys with complex sampling design, including National Health and Nutrition Examination surveys and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance surveys, were analyzed using appropriate sample weights to accurately estimate variance. Risk factor definitions and attribution methods have been previously reported.15 Definitions of metabolic exposures included fasting plasma glucose level measured in millimoles per liter, total cholesterol level measured in millimoles per liter, systolic blood pressure measured in millimeters of mercury, and body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared).15
Estimation of CVD Burden
All-cause, all-cardiovascular, and cause-specific mortality were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model, which produces cause-specific smoothed trends over time by age, sex, and state. Atrial fibrillation mortality was estimated with a separate natural history model described below. DisMod-MR, a Bayesian meta-regression tool developed for the GBD Study,1 was used to estimate prevalence and incidence for each cause. This software produced estimates for 6 estimation years (1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2016), including data from a selected number of years before and after each estimation year when estimating for these time points. Interpolation was performed to produce a continuous series of annual results. Analysis was performed at the level of specific disease sequelae (for example, IHD due to acute coronary syndrome, chronic stable angina, chronic ischemic heart disease, and ischemic cardiomyopathy) by age, sex, year, and state. Adjustments were made to data that did not follow the selected case definition (eg, electronic claims to clinical diagnosis) by a regression model that crosswalked values in the direction of case definition–based data.17 Heart failure prevalence was estimated and then attributed proportionally to its underlying causes, including IHD, nonischemic cardiomyopathy, and myocarditis. We include a separate analysis of total heart failure prevalence, given its importance to clinical care and public health. For atrial fibrillation, both prevalence and cause-specific mortality were estimated using DisMod-MR because mortality based on vital registration data alone provides an implausibly steep increase over time believed to represent changes in ascertainment rather than the disease’s epidemiology. Prevalence was estimated across a range of severities for each condition as well as an asymptomatic state. Severity levels for each disease were estimated using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey except for stroke, which was estimated from a model of Rankin scores collected within stroke registries, as described previously.17 Disability weights were developed to represent functional capacity for each severity level and multiplied by prevalence to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs), a summary measure of health among those living with a condition. Years lived with disability for sequelae are summed for their parent cause. Disability weights for the GBD Study 2016,1 including data collection and methods, have been previously described.14,20,21 Adjustments were made for comorbidity using a microsimulation process in which persons had an independent probability of having each sequela, and the probability was derived from the prevalence estimates. Years of life lost (YLLs) prematurely due to a cause was calculated by multiplying observed deaths for a specific age in the year of interest by a global age-specific reference life expectancy estimated using life table methods.
Disability-Adjusted Life-Years, Attributable Risks, and Sociodemographic Index
The disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) is a summary measure of health that was calculated for each age-sex-year-state-cause strata by summing the fatal (YLL) and nonfatal (YLD) components.16 For example, age-sex-state-year–specific numbers of YLLs due to IHD were added to the matching YLDs due to IHD to produce DALYs due to IHD. By dividing by population for that same strata, a DALY rate per 100 000 individuals was calculated. In the absence of health examination data from states, we predicted mean systolic blood pressure and total cholesterol levels for each state with a regression model combining covariates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance surveys and National Health and Nutrition Examination surveys. For risk factors estimated as continuous variables, we developed an ensemble distribution for each risk modeled using a family of probability density functions, a fitting method, a model selection criteria, and the method of moments.15 Population-attributable fractions of disease by cause were modeled based on estimates of exposure level, relative risk, and theoretical (eg, counterfactual) minimum risk levels using methods previously described.15 We accounted for joint effects of combinations of risk factors when sufficient evidence existed for a causal relationship. We modeled mediation pathways using individual-level data from prospective cohort studies and estimated the proportion of cardiometabolic effect from each metabolic and behavioral risk factor.
We performed a decomposition analysis of the change in DALYs from 2006 to 2016, estimating the change in CVD DALYs that would be observed after removal of the effects of population aging, population growth, and GBD Study 2016 CVD–associated risks.1 The decomposition analysis was undertaken at the all-risk level, taking into account risk mediation at the most detailed cause level. This was repeated at the most detailed risk-outcome level. The contribution of risk exposures over longer periods, eg, 2006 to 2016, or at higher cause aggregates, eg, all-CVD mortality, were calculated as the linear aggregate of the effect of individual risks at the most detailed cause level and period.
To provide a consistent comparison by socioeconomic status, a sociodemographic index (SDI) was estimated by state using equally weighted age-sex-state-year–specific geometric means of income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. The metric of SDI was used for consistency across all global locations included in the GBD 2016 Study.
The 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) reported for each estimate used 1000 samples from the posterior distribution from the respective step in the modeling process, reported as the 2.5th and 97.5th values of the distribution. Age standardization was calculated via the direct method, applying a global age structure. Differences in estimates were considered significant if 95% UIs did not overlap.
Results
SDI and Change in Total CVD Burden
Several states had large rises in their relative rank ordering for total CVD DALYs among states, including Arkansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Indiana, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa (Figure 1). A notable outlier was the (nonstate) District of Columbia, which achieved the highest SDI in the United States from 1990 to 2016 while decreasing its age-standardized CVD DALY rate from the highest in the United States in 1990 (7044 DALYs per 100 000; 95% UI, 6194-7482) to the 11th highest in 2016 (3821 DALYs per 100 000 persons; 95% UI, 3424-4209).
Change in Total CVD Burden, 1990-2016
The age-standardized rate of CVD DALYs decreased significantly in all states between 1990 and 2016, but there was wide regional variation in the amount of this decline (Table; eTable 1 in the Supplement). The largest percentage change occurred in the District of Columbia, New Hampshire, and New York. The rate of decline varied by sex, with a slower decline for women than men in all states (Figure 2A and B). The slowest decline was observed for women in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Alabama. Total CVD burden increased for both men and women from 2010 to 2016 in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
Geographic Variation in Total and Cause-Specific CVD Burden in 2016
There was wide geographic variation in the age-standardized CVD burden among US states in 2016, with the greatest burden concentrated in a band of states extending from the Gulf Coast to West Virginia. The highest rate of CVD DALYs was in Mississippi (4982 age-standardized DALYs per 100 000 persons; 95% UI, 4475-5487), followed by Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina, and Georgia (Table). Notably, several states outside this region had levels of CVD DALYs nearly as high, including Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Texas. The lowest rate of CVD DALYs was in Minnesota (2352 age-standardized DALYs per 100 000 persons; 95% UI, 2148-2552), followed by Colorado and areas of New England and the Pacific Northwest, including Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Washington, Connecticut, Vermont, and Oregon. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of age-standardized CVD DALYs in all states and the District of Columbia (eFigure 1 in the Supplement). The second-leading CVD cause was ischemic stroke in all states. The proportion of DALYs due to YLD (as opposed to YLL) ranged from 10% (in Mississippi) to 18% (in Connecticut) (eFigure 2 in the Supplement).
Age and Sex Disparities in Total and Cause-Specific CVD Burden in 2016
In 2016 in the United States, CVD as a proportion of all DALYs increased with age rapidly after age 40 years, rising to account for 20% of all DALY burden by age 65 years. The largest cause of CVD in the first year of life was cardiomyopathy (Figure 3). Hemorrhagic stroke accounted for an increasingly larger amount of CVD DALYs from age 1 to 14 years and then decreased slowly with increasing age, while ischemic stroke increased rapidly as a cause of CVD after age 60 years. Ischemic heart disease was the dominant source of CVD DALYs after age 40 years. Atrial fibrillation became an increasingly common cause of CVD burden for those 65 years and older. As noted above, estimates of heart failure have been disaggregated into their underlying cause in this analysis.
Large disparities between men and women existed for total CVD burden in 2016 (Figure 2C and D). Cardiovascular disease burden was generally twice as great for men compared with women in all states for ischemic heart disease, cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, and aortic aneurysm (Figure 4). While the patterns of states with higher and lower rates of age-standardized CVD DALYs are similar, the age-standardized rate for women is lower for every state. For example, the rate of CVD DALYs in Mississippi among women (3581 age-standardized DALYs per 100 000 persons; 95% UI, 3285-4399), the highest rate experienced by women in any state, is similar to the rate of CVD DALYs among men in Florida, Virginia, and South Dakota. The largest absolute difference in CVD DALY rates was observed between Minnesota and Mississippi for both men and women; however, this gap between the lowest and highest rates of CVD DALYs was much larger for men than women (3249 vs 2115 age-standardized DALYs per 100 000 persons). As noted above, estimates of heart failure have been disaggregated to their underlying cause in this analysis.
Geographic Variation in Heart Failure Prevalence
Age-standardized heart failure prevalence was greatest in many Midwestern and Eastern states and was least across the northern Great Plains and Western states (Figure 5; eTable 2 in the Supplement). New York had the greatest age-standardized prevalence rate for heart failure in 2016 (1319 cases per 100 000 persons; 95% UI, 1277-1350), followed by Indiana, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Michigan, West Virginia, and Ohio. Heart failure was least prevalent in Minnesota (760 cases per 100 000 persons; 95% UI, 702-827), with similarly low rates in Washington, Vermont, and Iowa.
Attribution of Total CVD to Risk Factors for Each State
For almost all states, the greatest proportion of age-standardized CVD DALYs was attributable to dietary risk factors, followed by high systolic blood pressure, high body mass index, high total cholesterol level, high fasting plasma glucose level, tobacco smoking, and low levels of physical activity (Figure 6). Notable risks that made up smaller proportions of CVD DALYs were ambient air particulate matter, impaired kidney function, and alcohol use. As an example, eFigure 3 in the Supplement shows the relative change in rank position for magnitude of the attributable age-standardized CVD DALY rate for risk factors in Mississippi and Minnesota. While dietary risks and elevated systolic blood pressure were leading risk factors for CVD in both Mississippi and Minnesota in both 1990 and 2016, high body mass index became a greater contributor and tobacco smoking became a lesser contributor to CVD burden over time.
Drivers of Changes in Risk-Attributable DALYs
Figure 7 shows the relative contributions of 4 mutually exclusive drivers of the observed change in CVD DALYs from 2006 to 2016 for each state: population growth, population aging, trends in exposure to all CVD risk factors measured in the GBD Study 2016,1 and all other unmeasured factors combined. The change from 1990 to 2016 is shown in eFigure 4 in the Supplement. Most states had an increase in CVD DALYs during this time despite all states experiencing a decrease in CVD-related risk exposures. Population aging and population growth accounted for most of this increase. Notably, the residual category of unmeasured factors, which would account for health care–related treatment and any other exposures not included in the GDB Study 2016 evaluation of traditional CVD risk factors, explained increases in many states, suggesting that unmeasured risk exposures are increasing the burden of CVD in many parts of the United States.
Discussion
Large disparities in total burden of CVD persist between US states despite marked improvements in CVD burden. We found that it took 25 years for states with the largest burden of CVD to achieve levels observed among the healthiest states in 1990. States with the highest burden of CVD in 1990, such as Kentucky, West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Oklahoma, are only now achieving the 1990 levels of CVD burden in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New Jersey. Mississippi continues to lag as the state with the largest CVD burden in the United States. These findings support the idea that tremendous gains in cardiovascular health are possible even in states with lower socioeconomic levels but that relative disparities between states have changed very little.22 These relative disparities may be of particular concern for Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, given their recent decision to not expand their respective Medicaid systems.23
We found increases in the total burden of CVD in 12 states from 2010 to 2016 (eFigure 5 in the Supplement). Several studies have noted increasing all-cause mortality for selected subgroups or regions of the United States. Life expectancy has been decreasing among women in some counties.6 It has been suggested that increasing body mass index will result in decreasing life expectancy in the United States.24 Our finding of increasing CVD burden is concerning and suggests that long-term decline in CVD may be ending. New clinical or public health interventions delivered earlier in the life course may be required to alter this alarming trajectory.
The District of Columbia, a small urban area tracked separately, is a notable outlier that demonstrates the potential for improvements in the burden of CVD for cities. This region experienced marked improvements in socioeconomic status since 1990, as reflected by our summary measure of SDI. The District of Columbia also experienced particularly rapid declines in CVD. The causal relationship between socioeconomic status and health has been well described.25 Also, wide variation in the rate of change for cardiovascular mortality has been shown for small geographic regions, such as counties.26 Migration of healthier individuals into the District of Columbia and states or migration of sicker individuals out of these locations may have also contributed to changes in CVD burden.
An intriguing finding of our study was that socioeconomic status did not fully explain a population’s level of CVD burden or risk factors. States with lower rates of CVD burden were found across the full range of SDI. Prior research has suggested a causal association between higher altitude and lower CVD mortality, which could explain lower CVD burden in some Mountain and Southwestern states.27 Variation in health care quality between states, another possible explanation, has been less well documented than variation between specific hospitals or health care referral regions but may be substantial. Finally, some aspects of socioeconomic status may not be well accounted for by our index, such as wealth (as opposed to income per capita) or attained level of maternal education.
Research and policy have focused extensively on race and ethnicity as independent risk factors for CVD in the United States.28 The GBD 2016 Study did not stratify health by these categories, and a full discussion of this important topic is beyond the scope of this article. For example, disparities attributed to race may in fact reflect differences in access to high-quality health care or genetic factors.29 The concentration of CVD burden in states with higher proportions of individuals that identify their race as black/African American or American Indian/Alaska Native is a well-known observation.30-32 The association of race/ethnicity and risk are complicated by the observation that self-reported race/ethnicity differs from genetic background. Furthermore, reported risk associations have differed for various regions of the country, suggesting effect modification by local factors.33,34 The addition of race-specific and ethnicity-specific state-level estimates is an important goal for future iterations of the GBD Study and will allow for further exploration of these issues.
Diseases caused wholly or in part by atherosclerotic vascular disease (IHD, stroke, peripheral artery disease, or aortic aneurysm) accounted for the largest portion of CVD in all states. Most of this burden was due to IHD. As noted above, estimates of heart failure were disaggregated to their underlying cause in this analysis, including IHD; burden due only to heart failure is not reported. More than 80% of CVD burden could be attributed to known modifiable risk factors. The prevention of CVD through the reduction of these well-known risk factors remains a major public health goal for the United States.35 Clinical trials have shown that medications should target lower levels of systolic blood pressure and plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol for many patients.36-39 Tobacco cessation also remains a major target for health systems and local governments.40 In addition to these clinical and public health goals, our analysis shows that a large proportion of CVD can also be attributed to dietary risks, high body mass index, and low physical activity. Notably, air pollution has continued to decrease in terms of its relative contribution to CVD in the United States.41 Both rheumatic heart disease and endocarditis account for a small but persistent proportion of CVD.
Limitations
Our study has limitations. All estimates have been reported as a mean value with an estimate of uncertainty. Given the combination of diverse data sources used to produce these results, the 95% uncertainty range is an important feature of our analysis that should be considered whenever interpreting a particular point estimate. Our nonfatal modeling process has improved significantly over the lifetime of the GBD Study, yet several challenges remain, including incorporation of uncertainty because of using multiple nonreference case definitions (such as cohort and claims data), quantifying the generalizability of claims data, identifying additional data on disease severity, accounting for the interdependence of comorbidities, and moving from cross-sectional estimation to a method that accounts for birth cohort effects.
Our analysis has several specific limitations. First, estimates at the level of US states represent an aggregate across a range of substate geographies, such as counties and urban vs rural areas. State-level estimates remain important given that many policy decisions continue to be made uniformly at the state level; however, further analysis is needed to examine differences between other geographic categories, such as urban and rural regions. Bias in death certification related to CVD has been demonstrated.42 Our results correct for some of this bias by adjusting for the use of nonspecific and intermediate ICD codes. Second, for this analysis, we applied a method to account for the variable use between states of nonspecific or intermediate causes on death certificates. Other biases in death certification are more difficult to correct in a state-specific manner, such as the common coding of death to ICD code I64 (stroke, unspecified type), which were reassigned to stroke subtypes using the same ratio of subtypes for each state.43 Third, our source for administrative health care data was limited to a database of mostly commercial payers, which may underestimate incidence and prevalence of disease if those with employer-based health plans are healthier than the general population. Incidence data for CVD is particularly limited in the United States. These claims data are available at the individual level for inpatient and ambulatory care and for all ages in all states across multiple years but do not include care covered solely by Medicare. Prevalence of CVD may be lower among those with private, employee-based insurance than those using Medicare or without health insurance. Administrative data were used only for conditions where it was felt to be reliable based on validation studies and expert opinion; however, some degree of misclassification bias, with both overestimation and underestimation, is likely from these sources. Expanding the GBD Study to include Medicare data is an important goal for future versions of the study. Fourth, our attribution of CVD burden to modifiable risk factors assumes a theoretical minimum level of exposure rather than the treatment goal of any set of existing intervention. For example, we rely on data from prospective cohort studies and clinical trials to set the minimum level of systolic blood pressure at 110 to 115 mm Hg. This level was selected because it is at this level that the lowest association with CVD outcomes is observed.44 We do not make any assumptions (or provide any estimates of health gains) regarding a specific level to be targeted by antihypertensive medication. Furthermore, while there is good evidence for causality for each risk and paired CVD outcome, the precise causes in any given population cannot be known with certainty. Fifth, estimates of prevalent heart failure are based on administrative claims data and carry the assumption that all cases presented to hospitals. Subclinical heart failure is therefore not included in these estimates. Sixth, our study is, by design, cross-sectional and therefore descriptive and hypothesis-generating rather than the basis for causal claims. Finally, this analysis does not report CVD due to 2 cardiovascular conditions, Chagas cardiomyopathy and congenital heart disease. Several hundred thousand cases of Chagas cardiomyopathy may be present in the United States.45 Estimates for disease burden due to congenital heart disease in the United States have been reported previously.46
Conclusions
Cardiovascular disease is a major cause of lost health in the United States but varies widely in level among states. Most CVD burden in the United States is from atherosclerotic vascular disease, and 80% can be attributed to known causal risk factors. We found that CVD burden has improved for all states, but the rate of decline varies widely and is strongly associated with an index of socioeconomic level. For 12 states, CVD burden has increased since 2010. These estimates can provide a benchmark for states working to focus on key risk factors, improve health care quality, and lower health care costs.
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Article Information
Accepted for Publication: February 22, 2018.
Open Access: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the CC-BY License. © 2018 Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases Collaboration. JAMA Cardiology.
Corresponding Author: Gregory A. Roth, MD, MPH, Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 Fifth Ave, Ste 600, Seattle, WA 98121 (rothg@uw.edu).
Published Online: April 11, 2018. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2018.0385