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A vascular-muscle-adiposity phenotype and incident stroke risk in middle-aged and older adults: a multi-cohort study
Hui Guo
a
a,1
, Fangping Xiao
a,1
, Zhi Cheng
d
, Lei Wang
b,c,*
, Qiu Rao
Department of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
b
b,**
Department of Pathology, Affiliated Jinling Hospital, Medical School of Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210002, China
c
d
Department of Pathology, The Affiliated BenQ Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
Department of Emergency Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
ABSTRACT
Blood pressure, muscle function and central adiposity are routinely measurable but are usually examined as
separate risk domains. We analysed harmonised data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study
(CHARLS), the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to test
whether a rule-based vascular-muscle-adiposity adverse-count phenotype was associated with incident stroke in
middle-aged and older adults. The baseline analytic cohort included 40,520 participants, and the incident stroke
risk set included 38,795 participants. The phenotype assigned one point for each adverse dimension: high mean
arterial pressure, low maximum grip strength and high waist-to-height ratio, defined using cohort- and sex-
specific tertiles. Cohort-specific Cox models were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. During follow-up,
2011 incident strokes occurred. Adjusted hazard ratios per 1-step increase were 1.32 (95% CI 1.22–1.44) in
CHARLS, 1.44 (95% CI 1.23–1.68) in ELSA and 1.22 (95% CI 1.14–1.32) in HRS. The pooled hazard ratio per 1-
step increase was 1.30 (95% CI 1.20–1.41), and the pooled hazard ratio for 3 versus 0 adverse dimensions was
1.94 (95% CI 1.60–2.36). All-cause mortality associations were less consistent across cohorts. This three-
component phenotype may offer a reproducible way to summarise vascular, muscular and adiposity-related
susceptibility to incident stroke in later adulthood; it should not be interpreted as a clinical threshold without
adjudicated outcome validation.
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